Set and Maintain Expectations (or, Fun with Metabolic Numbers)

Some things take longer than others. Way longer. So as I am determined to pursue a goal that will take a long time, it's good for me to have a reasonable expectation set of how long that long time is to be.

My expectation is that, when I get my body fat percentage to 10%, my metabolic health will improve greatly. How long should I expect that to take?

Assumptions:

1. "Living my life" takes 2400 calories per day.
1. A range is probably 1900 - 2500
2. My current body fat percentage is 25%
1. A range is 20% - 30%
3. Starting weight is 200 pounds.
1. 25% body fat is 50 pounds. 10% body fat is 20 pounds.
2. I need to lose 30 fat pounds.
4. The common use number for calories per fat pound is 3500.
1. 30 pounds at 3500 calories per pound is 105,000 calories
5. It takes some amount of time to go from eating to fed to fasted
1. Eat and then stop
2. Some number of hours later - 4 to 12 is the working range - I exit 'fed'
3. The real fast starts at hour 4 to 12, and that's when stored fat / glucose burn starts

Talking thru some numbers: For every hour I'm in post-fed real fast, I lose 100 calories worth of fat. It will take 1,050 hours of post-fed real fast to hit my goal !! Heck, that's only 43.75 continuous days of no food period. Yeah, no.

What about 16:8 as my fasting:feeding time? That'll yield 4 (=16-12) to 12 (=16-4) hours of post-fed real fast per day. 4 hours gives 400 calorie loss, so I'm at goal in 262.5 days - roughly 3 quarters of a year. 12 hours gives 1200 calorie loss, so at goal in 87.5 days - roughly 3 months.

There are few obvious ways to improve, in my real world.

• Estimates for my exercise routine yield 200 - 300 calories burned per session. Those are already included in the "Living my life" calorie use number. Given that I already do that, doing a lot more of it makes my shoulders ache. Will more exercise, for more time, help? Sure. Help a lot? Not so much. 
• Google "how to speed up digestion" and you'll get scores of lists of hints and tips. I do many of them already. There's a lot that I won't do, in the category of high carb low fat. There's a few I'll try (Looking at you, raw unfiltered apple cider vinegar, before meals).
• Do more, longer fasts. 16:8 is fasting training wheels. My current average is 19.2:4.8 (but, who's counting), which adds 3 real fast hours per day. My goal is to go longer than 'one day', more often, which will very much help. Working at the Volleyball factory helps with that.

I expect I'll be at goal in 6 to 12 months. All in the fullness of time ...